This is not financial advice. Only for educational purposes.

From our last story on Best Nifty 50 Fund, we found that Nifty Midcap 150 leads with the highest win rate, followed by Nifty Next 50 and then Nifty 50.

But we also saw that index funds can lose money if your time horizon is less than 7 years. Can active funds solve this problem?

I'm not a mutual fund distributor or trying to become a finfluencer. I'm just someone who loves data and wants to share findings.

For this analysis, I'm using data from 2013 onwards, since all direct plan mutual funds were launched in 2013.

What we compared:

• 3 Midcap Funds (highest AUM) vs Nifty Midcap 150
• 3 Large Cap Funds (highest AUM) vs Nifty 50 & Nifty Next 50
• 3 Small Cap Funds (highest AUM) vs Nifty Smallcap 250

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Step 1: Choose the Funds

Top 3 Midcap Funds by AUM

Scheme Name	AUM (₹ Cr)	Start Date
HDFC Mid Cap Fund	92,641.55	2013-01-01
Kotak Midcap Fund	60,636.84	2013-01-03
Nippon India Growth Mid Cap Fund	42,124.50	2013-01-02

Top 3 Large Cap Funds by AUM

Scheme Name	AUM (₹ Cr)	Start Date
ICICI Prudential Large Cap Fund	78,501.91	2013-01-02
SBI Large Cap Fund	55,879.13	2013-01-02
Nippon India Large Cap Fund	50,875.69	2013-01-02

Top 3 Small Cap Funds by AUM

Scheme Name	AUM (₹ Cr)	Start Date
Nippon India Small Cap Fund	-	2013-01-02
SBI Small Cap Fund	-	2013-01-02
quant Small Cap Fund	-	2013-01-02

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Step 2: Calculate Rolling Returns

I calculated 1-day shift SIP rolling returns for all funds for 3, 5, 7, and 10 years.

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Midcap Funds vs Nifty Midcap 150

3 Year SIP: The Short Game

You invest: ₹10,000 × 36 months = ₹3.6 Lakhs

Metric	Kotak Midcap Fund	HDFC Mid Cap Fund	Nippon India Growth Mid Cap Fund	NIFTY MIDCAP 150
Average Return	21.73%	20.99%	20.27%	20.31%
Median Return	23.67%	23.63%	21.26%	22.17%
Worst Case	-17.55%	-22.94%	-18.12%	-24.20%
Best Case	44.22%	41.47%	45.61%	45.40%
Loss Probability	3.83%	6.21%	4.07%	6.26%
20%+ Returns	69.67%	69.27%	54.92%	62.87%

Key Findings:

• 2 out of 3 funds beat Nifty Midcap 150 on average returns
• All 3 funds have better downside protection (less loss risk)
• Kotak Midcap is the winner: only 3.83% loss probability vs 6.26% for the index

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5 Year SIP: Getting Safer

You invest: ₹10,000 × 60 months = ₹6 Lakhs

Metric	Kotak Midcap Fund	HDFC Mid Cap Fund	Nippon India Growth Mid Cap Fund	NIFTY MIDCAP 150
Average Return	20.36%	19.53%	19.71%	19.21%
Median Return	22.43%	20.54%	21.05%	20.73%
Worst Case	-4.80%	-8.73%	-5.87%	-9.24%
Best Case	34.87%	37.31%	38.21%	36.06%
Loss Probability	1.91%	3.27%	2.52%	2.80%
20%+ Returns	63.98%	53.17%	55.09%	55.41%

Key Findings:

• All 3 funds have better minimum returns than the index
• Kotak Midcap still leads with lowest loss risk (1.91%)
• HDFC Midcap has slightly higher loss probability than index (3.27% vs 2.80%)

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7 Year SIP: The Safe Zone

You invest: ₹10,000 × 84 months = ₹8.4 Lakhs

Metric	Kotak Midcap Fund	HDFC Mid Cap Fund	Nippon India Growth Mid Cap Fund	NIFTY MIDCAP 150
Average Return	20.44%	19.28%	19.93%	19.10%
Median Return	20.84%	18.38%	19.89%	19.41%
Worst Case	5.61%	1.71%	1.43%	0.35%
Best Case	28.68%	29.30%	30.73%	28.68%
Loss Probability	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
20%+ Returns	59.20%	42.81%	49.23%	46.01%

Key Findings:

• Everyone makes money - zero loss probability for all!
• Kotak Midcap dominates: worst case gives ₹1.85 Lakhs profit vs ₹10,480 for index
• All 3 funds beat the index on worst-case returns

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10 Year SIP: The Wealth Zone

You invest: ₹10,000 × 120 months = ₹12 Lakhs

Metric	Kotak Midcap Fund	HDFC Mid Cap Fund	Nippon India Growth Mid Cap Fund	NIFTY MIDCAP 150
Average Return	21.22%	20.98%	21.08%	20.28%
Median Return	21.07%	21.33%	21.59%	20.42%
Worst Case	18.51%	16.93%	16.03%	16.07%
Best Case	24.17%	24.00%	24.93%	23.81%
Loss Probability	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
20%+ Returns	83.84%	75.63%	72.05%	61.89%

Key Findings:

• All 3 funds beat the index on average returns
• Kotak Midcap leads: 83.84% chance of 20%+ returns vs 61.89% for index
• All funds have better downside protection (higher worst-case returns)

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Step 3: Win Rate Comparison - Head-to-Head

Midcap Funds Win Rate

Period	NIFTY MIDCAP 150	HDFC Mid Cap Fund	Kotak Midcap Fund	Nippon India Growth Mid Cap Fund
3yr win rate	7.79%	29.97%	54.62%	7.62%
5yr win rate	0.00%	9.62%	63.53%	26.85%
7yr win rate	0.00%	0.00%	59.20%	40.80%
10yr win rate	0.00%	0.79%	99.21%	0.00%

Verdict: Kotak Midcap Fund dominates! After 10 years, it wins 99.21% of the time!

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Large Cap Funds vs Nifty 50 & Nifty Next 50

Large Cap Funds Win Rate

Period	NIFTY 50	NIFTY NEXT 50	ICICI Prudential Large Cap Fund	SBI Large Cap Fund	Nippon India Large Cap Fund
3yr win rate	19.11%	24.27%	6.61%	12.06%	37.94%
5yr win rate	27.44%	27.69%	8.61%	4.93%	31.32%
7yr win rate	0.00%	18.26%	15.45%	17.39%	48.90%
10yr win rate	0.00%	19.60%	1.59%	1.99%	76.82%

Key Findings:

• Nippon India Large Cap Fund is the clear winner
• After 10 years, it wins 76.82% of the time vs 19.60% for Nifty Next 50
• Only 1 out of 3 active funds beats Nifty Next 50 consistently
• Nifty Next 50 beats most active funds in shorter periods (3-5 years)

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Small Cap Funds vs Nifty Smallcap 250

Small Cap Funds Win Rate

Period	NIFTY SMLCAP 250	Nippon India Small Cap Fund	SBI Small Cap Fund	quant Small Cap Fund
3yr win rate	0.00%	14.27%	37.48%	48.25%
5yr win rate	0.00%	1.59%	42.43%	55.98%
7yr win rate	0.00%	26.08%	34.72%	39.20%
10yr win rate	0.00%	95.34%	4.66%	0.00%

Key Findings:

• All 3 active funds beat Nifty Smallcap 250
• quant Small Cap Fund dominates in short-medium term (3-7 years)
• Nippon India Small Cap Fund wins 95.34% of the time after 10 years
• Nifty Smallcap 250 never wins - it's the worst performer

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Key Takeaways

✅ Active Funds Win For:

• Midcap Funds: All 3 beat Nifty Midcap 150, especially Kotak Midcap
• Small Cap Funds: All 3 beat Nifty Smallcap 250 decisively

⚠️ Index Funds Win For:

• Large Cap: Nifty Next 50 beats 2 out of 3 active funds
• Nippon India Large Cap Fund is the exception - it beats both indices

📊 The Bottom Line:

Category	Winner	Why?
Midcap	Active Funds	All 3 beat index, Kotak Midcap dominates
Large Cap	Mixed	Nippon India Large Cap wins, but Nifty Next 50 beats others
Small Cap	Active Funds	All 3 beat index decisively

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Conclusion

Choose Active Funds for Midcap & Small Cap. For Large Cap, Choose Nippon India Large Cap Fund or Nifty Next 50.

The Data Says:

• Midcap: Active funds (especially Kotak Midcap) consistently outperform
• Small Cap: Active funds are clearly better - the index never wins
• Large Cap: It's mixed - Nippon India Large Cap Fund is excellent, but Nifty Next 50 is also strong

What This Means:

• If you're investing in Midcap or Small Cap, active funds give you better returns and lower risk
• If you're investing in Large Cap, you have two good options:
  • Nippon India Large Cap Fund (best active fund)
  • Nifty Next 50 (best index option)

Remember: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. But the data from 2013-2026 shows a clear pattern: active funds excel in Midcap and Small Cap categories.

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Data Source: NSE India & mfapi.in. Analysis period: Jan 2013 - Jan 2026. All returns calculated using XIRR method with ₹10,000 monthly SIP.