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Research tools for Indian retail investors. Educational analysis on real market history. Not investment advice.

© 2026 Nifty Terminal

Set in Geist · Data: AMFI, NSE · Built for Indian retail investors

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Nifty Terminal Indicator

A data-driven rule for fresh capital

The Nifty Terminal Indicator condenses fundamental, technical, and economic signals into a single 0 to 100 score for the NIFTY 50 index. Higher values indicate cheaper valuations and better risk-reward odds. Instead of guessing market tops, use today's score to set the split for this month's fresh savings between equity index funds and capital-preserving arbitrage funds.

This rule applies strictly to new monthly capital. Your existing equity holdings stay invested for the long term, while fresh money is held in a waiting room whenever valuations become stretched, ready to be redeployed when the market offers better value.

MARKET VALUATION

As of AS OF 21 Sept 2026 · EOD

How much should you invest in Equity this month?

100% Equity

Market sits in the fair valuation zone. 85.48% of past one-year windows ended positive, 69.08% beat 7% a year, and the average return was +15.00%.

0100
52.3 /100FairFair
ExpensiveCheap

Historical performance

1-year forward returns in this value zone

Average 1-year return
+15.00%

Negative

14.52%

0 to 7%

16.40%

7 to 12%

16.52%

12 to 20%

18.90%

Above 20%

33.66%

Historical results only. Past returns do not guarantee future performance.

Portfolio action

Invest 100% of this month's money in Index Fund. Keep your Arbitrage fund untouched.

Historical returns by valuation zone

Choose a period to see how NIFTY 50 performed after past days in each valuation zone. Rows show the share of outcomes in each return range and the average return, based on history rather than a forecast.

Starting valuationNegative0–7%7–12%12–20%>20%Average
Extremely expensive
0-30
63.18%9.08%10.72%6.74%10.29%−6.63%
Expensive
30-40
30.87%20.13%12.44%16.16%20.39%+9.42%
Fair
40-60Today
14.52%16.40%16.52%18.90%33.66%+15.00%
Cheap
60-70
6.40%16.40%13.20%9.20%54.80%+29.44%
Extremely cheap
70-100
0.00%1.39%1.51%7.89%89.21%+49.79%

History does not offer certainty, but it can reveal a strong pattern. The most expensive indicator readings were followed by losses nearly two-thirds of the time. The cheapest readings produced no negative 1-year outcomes in the observed record.

The backtest shows a meaningful separation, not a minor difference. The indicator’s extremely expensive zone had a 63.18% negative-outcome rate. Its extremely cheap zone had 0.00%. That contrast is the reason to treat the score as useful context.

Historical 1y forward rolling return based on 6,651 trading samples

Updated daily after market close