Can SIP Lose Money? Historical Returns by Holding Period

In the NIFTY 50 fund comparison, we looked at which fund delivered the highest returns. But choosing a fund is only part of the question.

What happens if you keep investing every month, and need the money back at the wrong time?

Let's work through it.

First, what is a SIP?

SIP stands for Systematic Investment Plan. Think of it as a regular investing habit:

• You choose an amount, say ₹10,000.
• You invest it every month, like paying a monthly bill.
• Each payment buys more units of the investment you chose.

After three years, you would have put in ₹3.60 lakh. The question is whether the investment could be worth less than that.

Yes, it could. A SIP controls when you invest. It does not stop the investment itself from falling in value.

Let's test the same habit across five indices

An index tracks a group of companies. Here are the five groups in this study:

For each index, I simulated a ₹10,000 monthly SIP. Start on one date, invest for three years, then check the result. Move the start forward by one available trading day and repeat.

This is a rolling SIP test. We do it for longer periods too, so we can see whether giving the investment more time changed the outcome.

The return measure is XIRR. It works out an annual return while accounting for the different dates on which you put money in. A negative XIRR means the ending value was below your total contributions; the XIRR itself is not the percentage of that total you lost.

Three years: could you get back less than you invested?

₹10,000 a month × 36 months = ₹3.60 lakh invested.

Let's start with the average result and the weakest result. Then count how many tested periods ended in a loss.

NIFTY 50 had 263 loss-making periods out of 4,424. Its lowest annualised return was −24.65%.

The average return was positive. Yet someone starting and ending at one of those weaker points would have finished with less than they contributed.

That's the first thing to notice: a good average does not mean every three-year journey ended well.

These counts describe simulated periods, not individual people. Many periods overlap and went through the same market falls.

Five years: does more time help?

₹10,000 a month × 60 months = ₹6 lakh invested.

For NIFTY 50, the number of loss-making periods fell to 33 out of 3,928. Its weakest annualised return was −7.38%.

That's an improvement over three years. But some five-year journeys still ended below the amount invested.

More time helped in this history. It did not remove the possibility of a loss.

Seven years: nearly all is still not all

₹10,000 a month × 84 months = ₹8.40 lakh invested.

NIFTY 50 had 4 loss-making periods out of 3,434. The lowest annualised result was −1.75%.

Only four periods ended in a loss, but calling seven years completely safe would leave them out. Also notice that the other indices did not all have the same experience.

The holding period matters, and so does what you invest in.

Ten years: what does zero losses actually mean?

₹10,000 a month × 120 months = ₹12 lakh invested.

NIFTY 50 had no negative results in 2,691 tested periods. Its weakest annualised result was 2.40%.

That's encouraging. But 2.40% a year could still leave your money growing more slowly than prices. Ending with more rupees is not always the same as being able to buy more with them.

And a positive ending doesn't mean the investment never fell during those ten years. This table measures the ending, not every difficult moment along the way.

What happened over fifteen years?

At fifteen years, NIFTY 50's weakest annualised result was 6.59%, across 1,452 periods.

Index	Average XIRR	Lowest XIRR	Loss periods	Tested periods
NIFTY 50	12.77%	6.59%	0	1,452
NIFTY NEXT 50	14.87%	9.50%	0	1,452
NIFTY LARGEMID250	15.23%	7.79%	0	1,452
NIFTY MIDCAP 150	17.30%	8.52%	0	1,452
NIFTY SMLCAP 250	14.55%	3.63%	0	1,452

There are fewer complete fifteen-year journeys in the available history, so there are fewer periods to compare. Zero observed losses is a historical result, not a promise about the next fifteen years.

So, can a SIP lose money?

When looking at a SIP result, ask three questions: what was the average, what was the weakest outcome, and how long was the money invested?

That gives us a much clearer picture than a single return number. It also explains why finding a fund that led its peers does not, by itself, answer whether the investment fits a particular goal.

Try the comparison in Strategy LabChoose a fund or index mix and look at its historical outcomes over different periods.

Data sources and the limits of this test

The saved study uses NSE index total-return series from April 2005 and ₹10,000 monthly SIPs. Total-return data includes dividends. Download the calculations behind these tables. This is a historical snapshot, not live data.

These are index simulations, not actual fund NAV returns. Fund expenses, investor taxes and transaction costs can change the result. Some index history may be calculated for dates before that index was launched.

The periods overlap, so the frequency of past losses is not a probability forecast. The ending return also does not describe how far the investment fell during the holding period.

For the calculation explained with examples, read rolling returns, CAGR and XIRR.