How to Analyze Funds?

This is not financial advice. Only for educational purposes.

If you've ever wondered how to compare two mutual funds or indices, this guide is for you. I'll explain three powerful analysis methods that I use in all my stories.

Let's make it super simple.

Method 1: Rolling Return Overview

Think of this like checking your exam scores. You've written 10 exams. Instead of just looking at one exam, you look at all of them.

Rolling returns works the same way. Instead of checking performance for just one date, we check it for thousands of dates.

Let me show you exactly how it works

Say you want to know: "What returns would I get if I invested for 3 years?"

Step 1: Take the fund's NAV (price) data

Date	NAV
Jan 2013	₹100
Jan 2014	₹110
Jan 2015	₹125
Jan 2016	₹140
Jan 2017	₹130
Jan 2018	₹160

Step 2: Calculate 3-year return starting from each date

Start Date	End Date	Start NAV	End NAV	Return (CAGR)
Jan 2013	Jan 2016	₹100	₹140	11.87%
Jan 2014	Jan 2017	₹110	₹130	5.72%
Jan 2015	Jan 2018	₹125	₹160	8.57%

CAGR Formula: ((End NAV ÷ Start NAV) ^ (1/years)) - 1
Example: ((140 ÷ 100) ^ (1/3)) - 1 = 11.87%

Step 3: Now we have 3 rolling returns: 11.87%, 5.72%, 8.57%

From this, we calculate:

Metric	Calculation	Value
Average	(11.87 + 5.72 + 8.57) ÷ 3	8.72%
Median	Middle value of [5.72, 8.57, 11.87]	8.57%
Min	Lowest value	5.72%
Max	Highest value	11.87%

In the real analysis, instead of 3 periods, we have thousands of periods because we shift by 1 day instead of 1 year.

What each metric means:

Metric	What it means	Real-life example
Average	The typical return you can expect	Like your average marks in class
Median	The middle value (half are above, half below)	If 21 students scored, rank 11 is median
Min	The worst case scenario	Your lowest exam score
Max	The best case scenario	Your highest exam score

Real Example: Bandhan Nifty 50 Index Fund (5-Year Rolling)

I calculated returns for every possible 5-year period from 2013 to 2026. That gave me 1,986 different results.

Metric	Value	What it means
Average	13.60%	On average, you'd get 13.6% per year
Median	13.77%	Half the time, you got more than 13.77%
Min	-1.13%	Worst case: you lost 1.13% per year
Max	26.44%	Best case: you earned 26.44% per year

Wait, negative returns in Nifty 50? Yes! If you had invested at the wrong time, even 5 years wasn't enough.

When to use this?

✅ Good for: Understanding overall performance & risk
❌ Bad for: Directly comparing two funds (use Win Rate for that)

Importance Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

Method 2: Return Distribution

Average tells you one number. But distribution tells you the full story.

Think of it like this: Two students both have 60% average. But:

Student A: All scores between 55-65% (consistent)
Student B: Scores from 20% to 100% (unpredictable)

Who would you trust more? Student A, right?

Let me show you exactly how it works

Step 1: Take the rolling returns we calculated earlier

Let's say we have 10 rolling return periods:

Period	Return
1	-2.5%
2	5.3%
3	9.1%
4	11.8%
5	13.2%
6	14.7%
7	15.1%
8	16.9%
9	18.3%
10	22.1%

Step 2: Put each return into a category (bucket)

Return	Category
-2.5%	❌ Negative
5.3%	📉 0-8%
9.1%	📊 8-12%
11.8%	📊 8-12%
13.2%	✅ 12-20%
14.7%	✅ 12-20%
15.1%	✅ 12-20%
16.9%	✅ 12-20%
18.3%	✅ 12-20%
22.1%	🎉 20%+

Step 3: Count how many in each category

Category	Count	Percentage
Negative	1 out of 10	10%
0-8%	1 out of 10	10%
8-12%	2 out of 10	20%
12-20%	5 out of 10	50%
20%+	1 out of 10	10%

This tells you: 50% of the time, you'll get returns between 12-20%. Only 10% of the time, you'll lose money.

How we categorize returns:

Category	What it means
Negative	You lost money 😢
0-8%	Very low return (below FD rates)
8-12%	Decent return
12-20%	Good return 👍
20%+	Excellent return 🎉

Real Example: Comparing 3 Nifty 50 Index Funds (5-Year Rolling)

Fund	Negative	0-8%	8-12%	12-20%	20%+
Bandhan	0.2%	8.3%	14.7%	73.0%	3.8%
HDFC	0.2%	8.8%	17.9%	69.4%	3.7%
Franklin	0.25%	11.1%	18.4%	66.6%	3.7%

What does this tell us?

Bandhan has the highest chance (73%) of getting 12-20% returns
Franklin has the highest chance (11.1%) of getting low returns (0-8%)
All three have almost same loss probability (~0.2%)

Bandhan wins here because it has the best distribution - more returns fall in the "sweet spot" of 12-20%.

When to use this?

✅ Good for: Understanding return consistency & risk levels
✅ Also good for: Knowing your chances of hitting different return targets
❌ Bad for: Quick comparisons

Importance Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)

Method 3: Win Rate (Head-to-Head Comparison)

This is my favorite and the most powerful method.

Imagine two cricket batsmen. Instead of comparing their averages, you make them play against each other thousands of times. Whoever wins more matches is the better player.

Win Rate works exactly like this.

Let me show you exactly how it works

Step 1: Calculate rolling returns for BOTH funds on the SAME dates

Start Date	Fund A Return	Fund B Return
Jan 1, 2013	12.5%	11.8%
Jan 2, 2013	12.3%	12.1%
Jan 3, 2013	11.9%	12.4%
Jan 4, 2013	13.1%	12.7%
Jan 5, 2013	12.8%	13.2%

Step 2: For each date, mark the winner

Start Date	Fund A	Fund B	Winner
Jan 1, 2013	12.5%	11.8%	Fund A ✅
Jan 2, 2013	12.3%	12.1%	Fund A ✅
Jan 3, 2013	11.9%	12.4%	Fund B ✅
Jan 4, 2013	13.1%	12.7%	Fund A ✅
Jan 5, 2013	12.8%	13.2%	Fund B ✅

Step 3: Count the wins

Fund	Wins	Win Rate
Fund A	3 out of 5	60%
Fund B	2 out of 5	40%

Even though both funds have similar average returns (~12.5%), Fund A wins more often. This is way more useful than just comparing averages!

In real analysis, instead of 5 periods, we compare across thousands of periods.

How it works (summary):

For every single day since 2013, we calculate returns for both funds
We check: who performed better on that day?
We count the wins
The fund with more wins is the true winner

Real Example: 9 Nifty 50 Index Funds

I compared all 9 funds for every single day. Here's the 10-year win rate:

Fund	Win Rate
Bandhan Nifty 50	100.0%
UTI Nifty 50	0.0%
HDFC Nifty 50	0.0%
Tata Nifty 50	0.0%
All Others	0.0%

Bandhan won 744 out of 744 periods!

That's like winning every single match in the tournament.

Why is Win Rate so powerful?

Traditional comparison (Average Returns):

Fund	5-Year Avg Return
Bandhan	13.60%
UTI	13.52%
HDFC	13.29%

The difference looks small, right? Just 0.3%.

But Win Rate tells the real story:

Fund	5-Year Win Rate
Bandhan	73.92%
UTI	17.57%
Taurus	7.95%
HDFC	0.0%

Now you can see Bandhan doesn't just beat others by 0.3% - it beats them 74% of the time!

When to use this?

✅ Best for: Directly comparing funds that track the same index
✅ Perfect for: Finding the absolute winner
❌ Bad for: Comparing different types of funds (like Midcap vs Large Cap)

Importance Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/5)

Summary: Which Method to Use?

Method	Best For	Importance
Rolling Return Overview	Understanding risk & typical returns	⭐⭐⭐
Return Distribution	Knowing your chances at different return levels	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Win Rate	Finding the absolute best fund	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

My Recommendation

First, use Win Rate to find the best fund in a category
Then, check Return Distribution to understand risk
Finally, look at Rolling Return Overview for context

Example: Putting It All Together

Goal: Find the best Nifty 50 Index Fund

Step 1: Win Rate → Bandhan wins (100% win rate over 10 years)

Step 2: Return Distribution → Bandhan has 91% returns in 12-20% range (best consistency)

Step 3: Rolling Return Overview → Bandhan avg: 13.18%, min: 10.52% (best among all)

Conclusion: Bandhan Nifty 50 Index Fund is the clear winner by all metrics.

Want to see these methods in action? Check out:

Best Nifty 50 Fund - Full comparison of 9 index funds

Can SIP Fail? - Risk analysis of different indices

Active Funds Better? - Active vs Index fund comparison

This is not financial advice. Only for educational purposes.

If you've ever wondered how to compare two mutual funds or indices, this guide is for you. I'll explain three powerful analysis methods that I use in all my stories.

Let's make it super simple.

Method 1: Rolling Return Overview

Think of this like checking your exam scores. You've written 10 exams. Instead of just looking at one exam, you look at all of them.

Rolling returns works the same way. Instead of checking performance for just one date, we check it for thousands of dates.

Let me show you exactly how it works

Say you want to know: "What returns would I get if I invested for 3 years?"

Step 1: Take the fund's NAV (price) data

Date	NAV
Jan 2013	₹100
Jan 2014	₹110
Jan 2015	₹125
Jan 2016	₹140
Jan 2017	₹130
Jan 2018	₹160

Step 2: Calculate 3-year return starting from each date

Start Date	End Date	Start NAV	End NAV	Return (CAGR)
Jan 2013	Jan 2016	₹100	₹140	11.87%
Jan 2014	Jan 2017	₹110	₹130	5.72%
Jan 2015	Jan 2018	₹125	₹160	8.57%

CAGR Formula: ((End NAV ÷ Start NAV) ^ (1/years)) - 1
Example: ((140 ÷ 100) ^ (1/3)) - 1 = 11.87%

Step 3: Now we have 3 rolling returns: 11.87%, 5.72%, 8.57%

From this, we calculate:

Metric	Calculation	Value
Average	(11.87 + 5.72 + 8.57) ÷ 3	8.72%
Median	Middle value of [5.72, 8.57, 11.87]	8.57%
Min	Lowest value	5.72%
Max	Highest value	11.87%

In the real analysis, instead of 3 periods, we have thousands of periods because we shift by 1 day instead of 1 year.

What each metric means:

Metric	What it means	Real-life example
Average	The typical return you can expect	Like your average marks in class
Median	The middle value (half are above, half below)	If 21 students scored, rank 11 is median
Min	The worst case scenario	Your lowest exam score
Max	The best case scenario	Your highest exam score

Real Example: Bandhan Nifty 50 Index Fund (5-Year Rolling)

I calculated returns for every possible 5-year period from 2013 to 2026. That gave me 1,986 different results.

Metric	Value	What it means
Average	13.60%	On average, you'd get 13.6% per year
Median	13.77%	Half the time, you got more than 13.77%
Min	-1.13%	Worst case: you lost 1.13% per year
Max	26.44%	Best case: you earned 26.44% per year

Wait, negative returns in Nifty 50? Yes! If you had invested at the wrong time, even 5 years wasn't enough.

When to use this?

✅ Good for: Understanding overall performance & risk
❌ Bad for: Directly comparing two funds (use Win Rate for that)

Importance Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)

Method 2: Return Distribution

Average tells you one number. But distribution tells you the full story.

Think of it like this: Two students both have 60% average. But:

Student A: All scores between 55-65% (consistent)
Student B: Scores from 20% to 100% (unpredictable)

Who would you trust more? Student A, right?

Let me show you exactly how it works

Step 1: Take the rolling returns we calculated earlier

Let's say we have 10 rolling return periods:

Period	Return
1	-2.5%
2	5.3%
3	9.1%
4	11.8%
5	13.2%
6	14.7%
7	15.1%
8	16.9%
9	18.3%
10	22.1%

Step 2: Put each return into a category (bucket)

Return	Category
-2.5%	❌ Negative
5.3%	📉 0-8%
9.1%	📊 8-12%
11.8%	📊 8-12%
13.2%	✅ 12-20%
14.7%	✅ 12-20%
15.1%	✅ 12-20%
16.9%	✅ 12-20%
18.3%	✅ 12-20%
22.1%	🎉 20%+

Step 3: Count how many in each category

Category	Count	Percentage
Negative	1 out of 10	10%
0-8%	1 out of 10	10%
8-12%	2 out of 10	20%
12-20%	5 out of 10	50%
20%+	1 out of 10	10%

This tells you: 50% of the time, you'll get returns between 12-20%. Only 10% of the time, you'll lose money.

How we categorize returns:

Category	What it means
Negative	You lost money 😢
0-8%	Very low return (below FD rates)
8-12%	Decent return
12-20%	Good return 👍
20%+	Excellent return 🎉

Real Example: Comparing 3 Nifty 50 Index Funds (5-Year Rolling)

Fund	Negative	0-8%	8-12%	12-20%	20%+
Bandhan	0.2%	8.3%	14.7%	73.0%	3.8%
HDFC	0.2%	8.8%	17.9%	69.4%	3.7%
Franklin	0.25%	11.1%	18.4%	66.6%	3.7%

What does this tell us?

Bandhan has the highest chance (73%) of getting 12-20% returns
Franklin has the highest chance (11.1%) of getting low returns (0-8%)
All three have almost same loss probability (~0.2%)

Bandhan wins here because it has the best distribution - more returns fall in the "sweet spot" of 12-20%.

When to use this?

✅ Good for: Understanding return consistency & risk levels
✅ Also good for: Knowing your chances of hitting different return targets
❌ Bad for: Quick comparisons

Importance Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)

Method 3: Win Rate (Head-to-Head Comparison)

This is my favorite and the most powerful method.

Imagine two cricket batsmen. Instead of comparing their averages, you make them play against each other thousands of times. Whoever wins more matches is the better player.

Win Rate works exactly like this.

Let me show you exactly how it works

Step 1: Calculate rolling returns for BOTH funds on the SAME dates

Start Date	Fund A Return	Fund B Return
Jan 1, 2013	12.5%	11.8%
Jan 2, 2013	12.3%	12.1%
Jan 3, 2013	11.9%	12.4%
Jan 4, 2013	13.1%	12.7%
Jan 5, 2013	12.8%	13.2%

Step 2: For each date, mark the winner

Start Date	Fund A	Fund B	Winner
Jan 1, 2013	12.5%	11.8%	Fund A ✅
Jan 2, 2013	12.3%	12.1%	Fund A ✅
Jan 3, 2013	11.9%	12.4%	Fund B ✅
Jan 4, 2013	13.1%	12.7%	Fund A ✅
Jan 5, 2013	12.8%	13.2%	Fund B ✅

Step 3: Count the wins

Fund	Wins	Win Rate
Fund A	3 out of 5	60%
Fund B	2 out of 5	40%

Even though both funds have similar average returns (~12.5%), Fund A wins more often. This is way more useful than just comparing averages!

In real analysis, instead of 5 periods, we compare across thousands of periods.

How it works (summary):

For every single day since 2013, we calculate returns for both funds
We check: who performed better on that day?
We count the wins
The fund with more wins is the true winner

Real Example: 9 Nifty 50 Index Funds

I compared all 9 funds for every single day. Here's the 10-year win rate:

Fund	Win Rate
Bandhan Nifty 50	100.0%
UTI Nifty 50	0.0%
HDFC Nifty 50	0.0%
Tata Nifty 50	0.0%
All Others	0.0%

Bandhan won 744 out of 744 periods!

That's like winning every single match in the tournament.

Why is Win Rate so powerful?

Traditional comparison (Average Returns):

Fund	5-Year Avg Return
Bandhan	13.60%
UTI	13.52%
HDFC	13.29%

The difference looks small, right? Just 0.3%.

But Win Rate tells the real story:

Fund	5-Year Win Rate
Bandhan	73.92%
UTI	17.57%
Taurus	7.95%
HDFC	0.0%

Now you can see Bandhan doesn't just beat others by 0.3% - it beats them 74% of the time!

When to use this?

✅ Best for: Directly comparing funds that track the same index
✅ Perfect for: Finding the absolute winner
❌ Bad for: Comparing different types of funds (like Midcap vs Large Cap)

Importance Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5/5)

Summary: Which Method to Use?

Method	Best For	Importance
Rolling Return Overview	Understanding risk & typical returns	⭐⭐⭐
Return Distribution	Knowing your chances at different return levels	⭐⭐⭐⭐
Win Rate	Finding the absolute best fund	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

My Recommendation

First, use Win Rate to find the best fund in a category
Then, check Return Distribution to understand risk
Finally, look at Rolling Return Overview for context

Example: Putting It All Together

Goal: Find the best Nifty 50 Index Fund

Step 1: Win Rate → Bandhan wins (100% win rate over 10 years)

Step 2: Return Distribution → Bandhan has 91% returns in 12-20% range (best consistency)

Step 3: Rolling Return Overview → Bandhan avg: 13.18%, min: 10.52% (best among all)

Conclusion: Bandhan Nifty 50 Index Fund is the clear winner by all metrics.

Want to see these methods in action? Check out:

Best Nifty 50 Fund - Full comparison of 9 index funds

Can SIP Fail? - Risk analysis of different indices

Active Funds Better? - Active vs Index fund comparison

Method 1: Rolling Return Overview

Let me show you exactly how it works

What each metric means:

Real Example: Bandhan Nifty 50 Index Fund (5-Year Rolling)

When to use this?

Method 2: Return Distribution

Let me show you exactly how it works

How we categorize returns:

Real Example: Comparing 3 Nifty 50 Index Funds (5-Year Rolling)

When to use this?

Method 3: Win Rate (Head-to-Head Comparison)

Let me show you exactly how it works

How it works (summary):

Real Example: 9 Nifty 50 Index Funds

Why is Win Rate so powerful?

When to use this?

Summary: Which Method to Use?

My Recommendation

Example: Putting It All Together

Share this article

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Terminal Indicator

Better than Index Fund?

Loss in SIP?

Method 1: Rolling Return Overview

Let me show you exactly how it works

What each metric means:

Real Example: Bandhan Nifty 50 Index Fund (5-Year Rolling)

When to use this?

Method 2: Return Distribution

Let me show you exactly how it works

How we categorize returns:

Real Example: Comparing 3 Nifty 50 Index Funds (5-Year Rolling)

When to use this?

Method 3: Win Rate (Head-to-Head Comparison)

Let me show you exactly how it works

How it works (summary):

Real Example: 9 Nifty 50 Index Funds

Why is Win Rate so powerful?

When to use this?

Summary: Which Method to Use?

My Recommendation

Example: Putting It All Together

Share this article

Related Articles

Terminal Indicator

Better than Index Fund?

Loss in SIP?